I was going to write a Spring Classics preview but let’s be honest, it’s all about Vos. She can win every race every which way (although luckily not every race every time every year, so it does keep things interesting. But as long as it’s not a road world championships, betting against Vos is like hoping for disgraced CEOs to forego their golden parachutes. Five unlikes for Vos at Flanders (not to be confused with dislikes):

1. Unlike Cancellara, she doesn’t really have any weak spot. She can climb, time trial and sprint (second at last year’s World Championship sprintfest).
2. Unlike Cancellara, she has team mates who can (and do) also win in these type of races.
3. Unlike most other bike races, Flanders understands the value of women’s cycling and also understands how to integrate a women’s race into the overall program. So the spectators are in for a treat.
4. Unlike Cancellara, Vos seems to be a mere mortal. It’s just been announced she’s sick and therefore out of Flanders for tomorrow. All bets are off, but my sentimental favorite is Lizzie Armitstead.
5. Unlikely winner could be Sara Duester, who is taking over the leader’s role from Vos for Rabobank. She is a great rider (and a great person), although she does not always like dealing with pressure. Maybe the way she just became the team leader is a blessing for her.

Of course with Vos out of Flanders, her focus will shift to the next races. And with her talents, there’s still so much to choose from.

I was going to write a Spring Classics preview but let’s be honest, it’s all about Cancellara. He is the best rider by far, and can win every weekend of April: Flanders, Roubaix, Amstel Gold and Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Things to consider:

1. Unlike the races so far, his only “weak spot”, the sprint, won’t hinder him as much in these races.  By the way, he’s actually quite a good sprinter, note also his fourth place finish at the World Championship sprintfest last year. And at the end of a race as hard as those four above, he’s a force to be reckoned with when sprinting against anyone.
2. The courses suit his strengths much better. If he is “on”, I don’t see people stay with him on the repeated climbs of the final stretch of Flanders, also not the much touted Boonen. If you’re in the same group as Cancellara with 30k to go, you will lose. He will take 10m on the climb, and good luck closing that gap. Same story in Roubaix, just replace “climb” with “pavé”. Last year Hushovd could match him stroke by stroke, but who can this year?
3. Many people may not associate Cancellara with Amstel or LBL, but they should. Amstel is the perfect race for him to jump on the second-to-last climb, and if he starts the Cauberg with 10-15s, you won’t see him back until the podium. Then finally we have LBL, which may suit his strengths even better. LBL is a unique race in that up to a dozen riders may have a shot at the win with 2k to go, nothing separating them for the first 250k+ of the race. But then in that last stretch uphill, which isn’t even an official climb but more a false flat, the lights go out for almost everybody. That long drag up is ideal for Cancellara, and I don’t know who could follow him.
4. Of course, in the past it has been difficult for Cancellara to remain in top form past Roubaix, but he seems leaner this year and I wouldn’t be surprised if Amstel and LBL are real goals for him this year. There is no doubt he wants to win all the Classics at some point in his career, he’s got the first 3 of the year in his pocket already, so it’s slowly time to look at number 4 and 5.
5. In my eyes, the best chance to beat Cancellara is with long breakaways full of 2nd and 3rd team leaders. Leopard doesn’t have any of those, it’s Cancellara or nothing. If a group of 20 riders takes 10 minutes and the team leaders are willing to give the glory to their luitenants, I’m not sure how Cancellara would get back into the race. Luckily for him, Boonen c.s. seem pretty confident in their own form, which should be a boon for Cancellara. If they really feared him, like many did last year, they would concentrate on how to beat him (let’s not get into the discussion about “negative racing again”). But this year, many riders (mistakenly) feel they are on equal footing, just what Cancellara needs. All the other teams will set up the race as a battle between the team leaders, and then he can dominate.

In the end, the only man capable of Cancellara may be Cancellara himself, like he did last year at Flanders or if he loses interest before Amstel and LBL. Let the races begin!

What’s today’s obsession with  “racing negatively”, “stealing the win”, “not showing heart” and other such comments? These statements usually involve a race where Cancellara finishes 2nd or 3rd, and the gist of it is that Cancellara rode his heart out, others sat on his wheel and he got beaten. I say utter nonsense.

You’re at the start of the race, you have a bag of tools and you need to figure out how to get to the finish first. Not everybody has the same bag of tools, so judging other riders by how similarly they ride to Cancellara makes no sense to me.

Let’s put it some other way, say Cancellara challenges you to a 100k ride you will be judged you on how you finish and your “heart”. So what do you do? As Cancellara takes off and winds up to 50kmh, you catch his wheel (if you’re lucky). Good for you, but of course you’re just a wheel sucker now, you’re showing no “heart”. So what do you do? In the first few k, do you take equal turns to show “heart” (assuming you can even get past him), only to blow up and be reduced to a sad little pile of pain by the side of the road? Or do you hang on to his wheel for dear life for as long as you can, and then ride the rest by yourself? I would suggest the latter, it’s not only the best way to achieve the best finishing result, it’s also the best way not to make a total fool of yourself.

While Gerrans and Nibali are no amateurs, they don’t have the bag of tools that Cancellara does either. They can’t show “heart” the way Cancellara does because they don’t have his “legs”. It seems unfair to me to deny riders the opportunity to show heart by making the “heart” test something only Cancellara can pass. Instead I would suggest you can show “heart” in many ways, by trying to keep up with a descending Cancellara even though you don’t have the same descending skills for example.

But enough about the heart, the worse one for me is “stealing the win”. Other than through cheating (as in breaking the agreed upon rules), there is no such thing. All 200 riders starting in Milan knew the rules, and knew where the finish was. They agreed that whoever got their first would be crowned the winner. They agreed you could ride in packs, in small groups, solo, anything goes. They specifically didn’t make a rule that forced you to do a certain percentage of the work when you were in a group, or that you can’t work on behalf of a teammate, or anything like that. They all agreed to that, set off, covered the whole distance and in the end Gerrans crossed the finish line first. End of story.

OK, one more thing, and I’ve written about this one at more length before. When a rouleur and a sprinter are in a breakaway, they both understand the rules of the game. The rouleur has to try to drop the sprinter, and the sprinter has to try to prevent that. Who ever succeeds wins, unless the rouleur generates an upset sprint (Vanmarcke over Boonen in the Omloop). The rouleur understands the sprinter won’t do much work, both because he doesn’t have the engine and because it makes him vulnerable for a jump from behind by the rouleur. It seems it is often the rouleur’s fans who don’t see it that way. Don’t get me wrong, I love watching the rouleur too, but I won’t fault the sprinter for playing to his own strength.

Dear Milan-SanRemo organizers,

Please don’t screw around with your beautiful race! After one of the most thrilling bike races in a long time this past saturday, it’s disheartening to read that you’re not happy with the result. So you wanted “the strongest” one to win or even better, an Italian with Nibali. A few thoughts:

• If the strongest rider DID always win, we wouldn’t watch the race anymore, because it would be, let me look for the technical term here; BORING!
• You can’t device a route where Nibali has a chance of winning. Actually, you can, but it would have to go to North from Milan instead of West, go around Lake Como, cross the Ghisallo. And it would have to be held in the fall.  Oh wait, you already organize such a race. It’s called the Giro di Lombardia.
• Aside from that, cycling isn’t about being the strongest anyway, we have stuff like this for people who love that sort of thing. Cycling is about strength, endurance, tactics and bluff. As Hennie Kuiper said so perfectly, it’s about finishing off everybody else’s plate before starting your own. Gerrans did that beautifully, not because he’s an asshole but because that’s the only way he could win.
• People who say Gerrans should have taken a few pulls should go work for the United Nations, not watch sports. If Gerrans and Cancellara both have “lactate acid coming out of their ears” (as Cancellara put it), Cancellara will win the sprint. Gerrans’ best bet was to make sure only Cancellara’s ears suffered from this infliction. Gerrans analyzed what his highest percentage play was, executed and won.
• So are people really saying Gerrans should have fatigued himself to the point where he would have lost? How does that make sense? Or are they suggesting a few fake pulls for the camera, which not only would have been lame but could actually have gotten them caught, as the pace will drop whenever Cancellara is not at the front. Not only should these people not watch sports, they shouldn’t be a coach either. “OK guys, listen up, I’ve devised a strategy to reduce our winning chances, but the twitter comments will be awesome!”

The bottomline is that Milan-SanRemo is one of the most perfectly balanced races on the calendar. Unlike virtually every other race, it has a near perfect split between mass sprint and small group/solo victor. In other words, throughout the race, in fact usually until the last meters, we have no idea who will win the race, we don’t even know what type of ending we’ll get. How is that not awesome?

And even if for some reason you don’t think that’s awesome and you want something else, how will the suggested solutions solve anything?

• There are suggestions to end the race immediately at the bottom to prevent people from coming back from behind. Aside from the fact that that would take a lot of the suspense out, how would it change anything? Gerrans still would have beaten Cancellara and Nibali.
• Some say they should climb the Poggio twice, pointing to Nibali’s jump to prove that climbing the Poggio just once isn’t enough to make a difference. Shouldn’t the conclusion be that Nibali’s simply wasn’t good enough? You could have done five laps of the Poggio, he wasn’t going to drop Cancellara or Gerrans. In fact, he was the one who almost got dropped the only time up.

Don’t get me wrong, I too am disappointed that Gerrans won, but not because of the tactics.

Sincerely,

Gerard, cycling fan