For weeks volumes are written and Gigabytes are filled with analysis on what will happen in the Tour. Now thanks to one douchebag spectator, all that can go in the trash. I love it. So I will repeat what I have said earlier on twitter and in the comments section of this blog: Talk about Contador and Schleck finishing 1-2 (in whatever order) and the rest fighting for 3rd are premature. Those two will NOT finish 1-2.
My prediction last week was not borne out of some incredible insight into relative fitness or ability, but just the odds that something unexpected will happen. Cycling is dangerous, especially in a peloton with 200 fresh riders crashes will happen and they will affect the outcome. For the Amstel Gold Race this year I predicted one of two riders would crash, and I caught a lot of flak for wishing ill on them. But I wish none of the riders any ill, it’s just an inevitable part of the sport. And coincidentally, I was right.
But don’t think just about crashes; mechanicals, fitness, illness, hunger knocks, a lousy hotel the night before the key stage, any of this can affect the outcome.
That’s also the reason why my prediction didn’t include WHO would swoop into the top-2, as that is far too difficult to predict. Evans may seem a likely candidate, especially after yesterday, but there are still 20 days left and his track record when it comes to luck in the Tour isn’t great. So let’s hope for the best.
P.S. My usual Tim Krabbé Zoetemelk clause applies to the above prediction.