Vaughters – part 1

August 13, 2012

So Vaughters has come out and admitted to doping.

Since he has regularly stated that he is not proud of certain achievements as a rider and mentioned his “colorful past”, this should come as no surprise.

I realize his revelations might still have come as a shock to those who think Vaughters is the second coming of Christ (or the third if you count Lance), but I think that for most people, this won’t change their opinion of him. Man races bike, is not proud of some of his achievements, becomes very driven to start a team focused on clean cycling, gives several ex-dopers a second chance, etc, etc. It’s not rocket science.

The previous paragraph may surprise some people given my comments on Frei and Dekker. However, I have never questioned people’s right to a second chance, my point is only that teams equally have a right to give that chance to somebody else and normally I favor giving a first chance to a new rider over giving a second chance to an old one. Which is why, as has been reported before by Jonathan, I disagreed vehemently with him about giving Dekker a second chance.

But does this mean that Vaughters deserves a second chance, this time as a team director? Not sure “deserving” is the right word, but it’s his good right to accept what people offer him. Doug Ellis heard Vaughters’ story and offered him a chance to execute the vision for a different kind of team. And the team seems to have achieved some success in that regard.

That doesn’t make me a fan of Vaughters, but it does make me a fan of Ellis who I think is one of the bright spots in the often disappointing sport of pro cycling.

To be continued Wednesday, you can subscribe to this blog if you don’t want to miss it.


Special Kiss-of-death Olympic predictions

July 28, 2012

How can Cav not win? That seems to be the question, very similar to last year’s worlds. So naturally, a lot of the same logic applies, see in particular the piece “Cyclists are losers“, it’s worth another read in my humble opinion.

So what will happen? I’m looking closely for four things:

  1. Even though many more teams speak of following the “chaos therapy” I described in “Cyclists are losers“, I am afraid that when push comes to shove, not many will follow through.
  2. The key to a successful break-away will be size (you need to be considerably bigger than the team of four GB time trialers trying to catch you). This however goes against the other key, which is a very fast decision to go for it once you have gapped Cav the tiniest bit, as you won’t get much more. So is it possible for a group of 20 riders of 15 different countries to look around quickly and determine to work together and go for it? Given that most riders haven’t taken independent racing decisions in years due to the ear pieces, I am skeptical.
  3. If there is a break, I think GB should send a rider along. Catching 20 riders back with a team of 4 won’t be easy, whereas Wiggins sitting in a group of 20 without doing any work (waiting for Cav) and then placing a jump in the last 10k, I’m not sure who would catch him. I somehow suspect that’s also GB’s plan, I can’t imagine that their plan is really as was spelled out by Brailsford (“Plan A is Cav, and the rest of the alphabet too”).
  4. Crashes could have a big influence on the outcome, I don’t hear that much about this possibility but how many teams have a plan for what to do in a crash?

So my picks would be Cancellara for the pure chaos strategy, Wiggins for chaos if GB does have a different plan Z, and Cav if all else fails.


Take the lead

July 25, 2012

Last week I commented on why the Schleck case won’t change cycling’s anti-doping quest. First off, I fully understand why nobody is really saying anything right now, as virtually nothing is known, but also when more info comes out, that won’t change. Nor will this be an impetus to drive a wider anti-doping discussion.

And when you think about it, whether this is a case of tainted supplements, poisoning or a top rider still not learning, it would warrant a serious discussion on where cycling wants to take its anti-doping effort. The reason it won’t happen is that everybody in cycling is so intertwined that nobody can take a stance:

  • Radioshack is not in a position to take the lead. Schleck is their rider and even if not, the last thing they want to talk about is doping, with Bruyneel facing a possible life-time ban over USADA’s Lance investigation.
  • Riis can’t take the lead because Schleck rode for him for years and he supported him when the Schleck-Fuentes link came out.
  • GreenEdge can’t take the lead because their PR man used to work for Riis and wrote the now infamous press release when the Schleck-Fuentes situation came up (you can read it here and remember, this was after Schleck denied for 3 months there was any link to Fuentes and somehow ignoring the fact that when you pay 7000 Euro and don’t get anything in return, most people would ask for their money back).
  • Then there are probably a half-dozen teams who contacted Schleck in the past month after it became clear the brothers were trying to leave Radioshack, and they wouldn’t want to get into a pissing match of “well, you criticize me now  but last month you thought I was great”. So nothing will come from there.
  • Additionally, commenting on Frank Schleck may annoy some of his friends at Radioshack who also want to leave (which may include some VERY desirable riders), so if you’re trying to sign any of them, you will probably stay quiet too.
  • Sky won’t take the lead because they don’t want to be associated with anything doping-related right now since their excellent performances are making some people suspicious (unwarranted in my opinion, but that’s another discussion).
  • Garmin-Sharp won’t take the lead as they don’t want to put focus back on the USADA five right now (the second paragraph principle, after the main news is put in the first paragraph, the second paragraph is for a related bit of info and on this topic, nobody wants to be that bit).
  • The UCI has been “100% behind” Leopard before it even existed, and they have a complicated relationship with Bruyneel, so they will do their duty in this case (unlike some I have no doubt about that) but I would not expect them to use this case to really punch through with sweeping changes.
  • The national Luxembourg federation and ADA, what can they be expected to do when Schleck and cycling are one and the same in their small country? (which is why we should forget about national agencies being involved in anti-doping procedures to begin with).

So as a result, this will be a case that will take its course, which may range from a warning to a two-year ban, but it won’t spur any bigger shake-up. And this sort of inter-connectedness is by no means an exception.

In case you wonder, you might think I wouldn’t have anything to say either because Schleck rode on a bike I had something to do with until 2008. But I have already spoken my mind on this, I don’t think I can add much to what I said here.

But it’s not all bad, so in one of the next posts we’ll look on the bright side. Follow it all by subscribing here.


Sprinters win GC

July 23, 2012

One of the most endearing oddities about cycling is how a few race results can turn into a truism in no time. When Indurain won Giro and Tour in the same year, the Giro was “the perfect preparation” for the Tour. When he stopped riding the Giro and still won, “cycling was too hard ‘in the modern era’ to do both”.

Then Lance proved that you can only win if you have the entire team focused on winning the GC, that you cannot combine GC and sprints in one team. This was further proven by HTC, whose GC riders never got very far. Never mind that their GC riders were always on the second tier to begin with. I’ve said many times I thought this was silly, but it’s been one of the most persistent truisms of the past decade.

Anyway, I would like to propose the following new truism:

To do well on GC, you need a top sprinter on your team.

You see, there are three sprinters who have won three stages each this Tour; Cavendish, Sagan and Greipel. They ride for Sky, Liquigas and Lotto, who occupied positions 1, 2, 3 and 4 on GC in Paris. Therefore, irrefutably, you need guys who win sprints to score on GC. Also note BMC, whose sprinter Hushovd could not participate this year, and we all know what happened to Evans.


un-suit-able

July 21, 2012

[Apparently I need to spell this out as it isn’t clear: This blog post is not about Wiggins, who won both TTs in dominating fashion and would have done so in other apparel as well. I thought that was pretty clear but apparently it’s not, so I hope we’re clear now]

In the first TT, Wiggins used a yellow Adidas TT suit with seams and cuts that were designed for an aerodynamic advantage. At least that’s what several Sky people said. This was odd for two reasons:

  1. Classification leaders are normally required to use the TT suits provided by the race organizer. I know riders have wanted to use their own suits before but as far as I know, this has never been allowed. Now it was.
  2. Designing features solely for their aerodynamic benefit is not really allowed according to the UCI rules, although the rules are vague in this particular case.

Then some strange things happened:

  1. The UCI came out and said they had approved the Sky suit months ago, and that the seams were just seams and not aerodynamic improvements. Note that this is contrary to what Sky themselves claim, and one wonders how the UCI tested whether or not these seams work.
  2. Then the UCI said that they would review the suit Wiggins used in the TT to make sure it was still the same as the one they reviewed and approved months ago. But they didn’t rip the suit off of Wiggins at the finish of the TT. No, they simply asked if Sky could send them a suit whenever it suited them (no pun intended). This is very odd, how does the UCI know that Sky will send the suit Wiggins wore? If Wiggins indeed used a different suit from the one that was approved (which is the hypothesis that the UCI is presumably trying to test), they would be crazy to send the actual non-approved suit. Imagine if drug testing worked like this, where we would just ask the to send in their pee samples whenever convenient.
  3. Then in the last TT, Wiggins didn’t use the same suit as in the first TT. It was either a different Adidas suit or the standard Tour de France suit (with Adidas stripes). If the original Adidas suit was legal, why change? If it wasn’t, then what does that mean for the first TT?

I’m not sure what the full story is, but I am pretty sure it won’t go anywhere. Once again Sky’s special status will be confirmed.

Lots of blog posts coming up this week, to receive them automatically subscribe here.

[edited bullet 3 at 17:58]


Trait 10 of champions

July 20, 2012

Unfortunately I didn’t have a chance to finish my part 2 on the Schleck case, so that will come next week (subscribe here). In the meantime, here is Trait 10 of champions:

Willingness to suffer: Great champions do not wish to suffer any more than you or I, but seem to accept the pain of athletic suffering as part of thei endeavor. They seem to force more out of their bodies than other riders do, especially when the going gets tough. Much of this sport, at all levels, is decided by a mental commitment that allows the body to react accordingly.


Another one bites the dust

July 19, 2012

[one day late, I didn’t have a connection yesterday]

Another Tour, another doping case. Or rather, several of them. After Di Gregorio (who looks like he is about to scream a la Edward Munch in the photo accompanying this article about the case) and the USADA five upheaval, we now have Frank Schleck.

Will it ever change? Here is the problem:

  1. There is no doubt the peloton has gotten cleaner in the past five years.
  2. There is equally no doubt that there are still some who have missed the memo and some new problems have been cropping up (training on far-away islands, micro-dosing, etc).
  3. To solve it, the sport needs decisive action.

But who will act decisively? As I have mentioned before, the deafening silence from teams and federations is chilling. In April I said this:

Why aren’t teams speaking up about what they want in the anti-doping fight? They pay the most for the biological passport, and the program doesn’t seem to catch too many people anymore. So I would expect teams to say one of two things. Either they say “we’ve done it, we’ve solved the problem, we spent a ton of money on it and we’re proud of the result” or they say “hang on, we’re paying all this money but not catching the cheats”. Instead they say nothing, giving the impression they don’t have a vested interest in the success of the program. Or that they define success differently.

Nobody stands up to say “this is where we stand, these are the problems, these are the tough steps we’re taking to solve them, and off we go”. I fear there are three main reasons:

  1. Too many people have too “colorful” a past to take charge on this issue.
  2. Too many people in cycling know about too many skeletons in other people’s closets, and so everybody keeps everybody else in check through fear of mutual annihilation.
  3. There are so many connections in cycling that getting on your soap box here will burn you elsewhere, even if you have nothing to hide.

This Schleck case is a perfect example. I will examine that tomorrow so if you don’t want to miss that, subscribe here!


Trait 9 of champions

July 16, 2012

I promised to several people I would finish this series of 11 Traits of champtions (see them all here), so here we go with number 9. Thanks again to Toby Stanton (@hottubes on twitter) for these:

Inward focus: The really great champions seem unconcerned about whom they are competing against. The riders in a particular event only provide a standard by which they will apply and measure themselves. The champion competes against their own abilities and limitations. The champion does not look outward, blaming others for a loss, but rather inward to those areas that can be improved for the future.

Still two more traits of champions to come in the next few weeks, so if you don’t want to miss them, subscribe to this blog here.


5 answers to: “Is the Tour boring?

July 13, 2012

The always excellen Inner Ring posted a story with this title. I have five answers:

  1. Yes, it is boring. At least usually. Remember the Indurain years? A month of magazines explaining why this year, Bugno, Chiapucci or Rominger would challenge for the win. Then the start, one week of sprints, a time trial, and the race was over. Or the Lance years? A month of magazines explaining why this year, Zuelle, Ullrich or Beloki would challenge for the win. Then the start, one week of sprints, a time trial, and the race was over. Sometimes that first time trial was instead the first up-hill finish, and one year the race was even exciting until the last weekend. I think.
  2. No, this is cycling. It’s hard to create a course that keeps the GC up for grabs until the last days. Sometimes a race organizer is lucky, often they’re not. Somehow the Giro seems to be decided later than the Tour, at least in recent history (and by later I mean towards the end of the three weeks of racing, not 18 months later once CAS has ruled). So the course has something to do with it, but as they say, “the riders make the race”.
  3. That said, if it is difficult to keep GC interesting, it should be possible to make the stage wins exciting. Flat stages with predictable sprint finishes are part of the race, but we don’t need 10. I’m sure race organizers started adding uphill finishes to the flat stages to prevent Cavendish from winning everything, but of course the problem is that Gilbert (last year) or Sagan (this year) win all of those. I think the best stages in the first week would have a 3rd or 4th category climb at 5-10km from the finish. It makes it hard to calculate catching the early escape, it allows some riders to jump away and maybe stay away, it will allow some sprinters but not others to pace themselves over the top and catch back on.
  4. Focus on the other classifications. Especially the best climber classification, it rarely provides the entertainment it should. I would really like to see time bonuses at the top of each climb, so the favorites are forced to sprint at the top of each climb. That would shake things up, reveal weaknesses earlier in the stages and maybe entice some riders to stretch their sprints out on the way down and create some opportunities.
  5. Change how the race is broadcasted. Nowadays, when the broadcast starts, we see a couple of riders “who were allowed to ride away”. Usually nothing could be further from the truth, getting into the break is incredibly hard work and very exciting to watch. Those who saw the stage to Lourdes last year will remember that Hesjedal was all out for the better part of an hour, one break after another, never gaining more than 15 seconds, until finally the break stuck. It would be much better to show the first (tape-delayed) and the last hour of a race, rather than the final two hours.

Does the Lance case matter?

July 11, 2012

Two comments seem to pop up regularly when it comes to the Lance case:

  1. “Lance is hounded so much more than his contemporaries.”
  2. “What does it matter, it’s in the past” sometimes combined with “If not Lance, then who are we giving the wins to, Ullrich?”

As for #1, I don’t think that’s really the case. Of course the Novitsky investigation involved heavy artillery, but a lot of that was not about “Lance the rider” doping. Rather it was about fraud, trafficking, suspicions of that nature. Furthermore, his contemporaries can largely be separated into two camps, those who admitted guilt fairly quickly and those who did not. Obviously the first group wasn’t hounded as much, but plenty of riders in the latter group have been hunted down with a vigor not dissimilar to what Lance is experiencing.

Take Ullrich, who has had Spanish, Swiss and German authorities (both sporting and regular) chase him for six years. Valverde was tag-teamed by an army of entities until the puzzle was complete and his suspension globally enforced. Not even the Spanish king could save him. I’m not suggesting they all get together to sing Kumbayah and start a self-help group, but there is definitely no reason for any of them to feel singled out.

As for #2, I don’t think “cleaning up” the results from the past would be a worthwhile benefit. Showing athletes that no matter how sophisticated you are, in the end the cheating will catch up with you and therefore it’s not worth it, that would be a bit more worthwhile. But I think the real benefit would have little to do with Lance, and rather would be to keep certain other individuals (mostly doctors) away from sports in the future. THAT could be the real benefit of sorting out the past.

To me, that would be worth the costs of these investigations. It seems yesterday a first step was made in this regard, with life-long bans for three doctors. Not that these bans will stop these individuals, but at least it will make it much easier to go after the athletes who continue to use their services.